Monday 15 August 2011

To the Magicians at Motorola:

Wow guys! Well done!

Some interesting things happening in the mobility industry today! I know Motorola is a bastion of the industry, but Google may have paid a bit too much, a bit too late to add much to its IP arsenal in the two front war they're presently embroiled in with Apple and Oracle.

My guess: they're trying to shore up LARGE gaps in their Android platform, prior to having to disclose (more) messy details in court.

Meanwhile, Motorola does not appear to be resting on its laurels, with the launch of a new handest Defy+ (The Inquirer) they seem firmly rooted (pardon the pun) into Android, and now with a potentially preferred development pipeline, who can compete with them?

Timeline Time!

October 2010: Moto sued by Micro$oft over mobile synch patents for mail and calendar, et cetera, Moto responds: Hey M$, we should still be buddies! We are still willing to entertain WinPhone whenever you get around to making a decent product! (paraphrasing The Inquirer article) So Moto basically said, M$ you left us out in the cold, and Android was our only hope to make some money.

Novenber 2010: Moto fires back in court at M$, claiming 16 patent infringements, and M$ goes back to court to complain Moto refuses to play nice (ie: cheap) in licensing negotiations. Looks like M$ and Moto are ready to spill plenty of money in retainer fees here. (sources: here & here, thanks to The Register)

December 2010: Moto and Google folks talk tablet, while Moto remains stuffed shirt about details, Goog whips one out, and shows some functionality with a(an un-named Xoom) running Android 3.0 (The Inquirer) So I get that Google was working closely with tablet makers, but Google's Andy Rubin did not demo any other tablet devices while presenting at D.

Skip ahead a few months, Moto has launched the Atrix (My current smartphone), and the Xoom, both of which do okay at launch. {Related side-note here: I am completing the Atrix review, and it'll be going up soon!}

April 2011: Google announces that if manufacturers want early access to Android, they will need to divulge more of their roadmap to Google (The Inquirer). This looks like a legitimate request, and Google stated this was part of the ongoing push to address the fragmentation of Android versions and specialized builds that left several early Android devices out in the cold regarding adding additional functionality, and updates. I think this is where Google may have begun digging further into Motorola's Mobility business, perhaps beginning to more seriously commit to an acquisition internally.

May 2011: As a result of an ongoing court case, an internal Goog mail was revealed indicating that though Goog markets itself, and to a great extent their mobile OS as "Open-Source", the reality is they can (& have, it's implied) used their ability to pull Android support from handsets, leaving manufacturers in the lurch without key applications like Google Maps/Voice & Android market access. Not a very open thing to do, yet, within their reach into the handset marketplace, after all, if you want to play in my yard, I get to make up the rules as I go too. But keep changing them too often, and you may find an empty playground (The Register, Skyhook vs Google).

June 2011: Motorola gets up on their soapbox about Android apps, claims 70% of their handset returns are due to third-party applications hogging resources (The Register). Sanjay Jha (CEO of Moto) went on to say he hopes Motorola users feel like Moto customers, not Android or Carrier customers, which is what the MotoBlur experience is meant to deliver. Personally, my experience on MotoBlur has been less than stellar, and the social integration on my Atrix seems to lag the handset frequently, less so since the Bell update though. June is also notable for a little Google self-promotion: (The Inquirer) citing 500,000 Android device activations daily, Google has made huge inroads into the mobile OS marketplace with the folks that count : CUSTOMERS. It is looking good for them to consider getting into the handset business with their 33% marketshare as of April 2011, Gartner was convinced Android will account for nearly half of the mobile OS marketplace by end of 2012.

August 2011: On the 9th - Moto comes out of the gate in early stating they would be interested in M$ Win Phone, but at present all of their development efforts have been focused on Android. After the recent sweetheart deal M$ made with Nokia, this made a convenient cover-up on what must have been frantic 11th hour perparations to close acquisition loopholes - interesting to note, Moto took this opportunity to state their marketplace differentiation will stem from their significant IP portfolio, and they will be pushing an agressive European rollout of global-enabled handests. Moto furthered this position by slagging the other entries in the mobile marketplace : HP's WebOS(which they paid too much for from Palm) & RIM's BB7 OS, I guess that makes WinPhone 7 the first choice of the benched players.


This brings us to today's awesome announcement! Again, I would like to congratulate Motorola on a stunning achievement in getting bought by one of the few companies that has that kind of balance sheet, and is not Apple. Speaking of Cupertino, I'd be releasing as many leaks about the upcoming iPhone 5 as possible right now, to get the media off this topic , if I were them. Seriously though, Apple is most likely rubbing thir gleeful hands together, having already spotted the weakenss in what appears to be an otherwise decent acquisition:

BUYING A HARDWARE MANUFACTURER HAS ALIENATED ANY OTHER COMPANY THAT MAKES OR WAS CONSIGERING MAKING ANDROID DEVICES.

Crap guys, we're not talking small potatoes here either Samsung and HTC have to be mad as hell! And what about tablets? Android was supposed to lead the charge against Apple's basically unchallenged market dominance, but that was generally predicated on having several hardware flavors for consumers to choose from to erode the CupertinoColussus' massive head start.

Plenty of conclusions to draw here:
1. Google realized not being more serious in those Nortel patent bids was a dumb idea.
2. Teaming up with Moto means taking on more litigation in process, but may offer some protection in other ways, from IP acquisitions to other lawsuits Motorola is waging in the industry.
3. Microsoft and Nokia are DOOMED? Could this be true? I think if M$ and Nokia get a variety of handest form factors into the market, and at a reasonable cost, they could get lucky!
4. Motorola hit a HOME RUN here, and investors must be silly with excitement.

We're a ways away from this being approved, and actually underway, then there's the SEC fine tooth comb that has yet to be passed. I wish them both good luck with the gauntlet ahead, they'll need a fair bit to make it out the other end as planned.

Though, I personally have to agree with my favorite Tech pundit John C. Dvorak, this fight is just getting interesting!

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